Irish Unification Plebiscite Must Not Become 'Another Brexit', Commentators Caution

A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."