The Demise of the 28-Point Peace Initiative for Ukraine: Why Diplomatic Efforts Continue to Falter

Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.